SuperForce.com Top 20 list and Volatility Index Correlation: 

                                  

Rank 

Company

(*** Top 5 names and symbols only provided to subscribers of the monthly service)

Symbol

SuperForce Phantom Portfolio Trading, Last Three Months Sept. 6th - Dec. 5th 2001 (non-compounded)

1

************

***

98.25%

2

************

***

87.74%

3

************

***

78.77%

4

************

***

61.26%

5

************

***

60.95%

6

Martha Stewart Living

MSO

46.57%

7

DaimlerChrysler

DCX

46.13%

8

Ford

F

44.61%

9

XO Communications

XOXO

36.31%

10

Eastman Kodak

EK

35.26%

11

Celadon Group Inc

CLDN

33.90%

12

Citigroup

C

32.08%

13

Gateway

GTW

31.78%

14

Delta Airlines

DAL

31.10%

15

Unisys

UIS

27.65%

16

Lucent Technologies

LU

27.18%

17

Amgen Inc.

AMGN

26.55%

18

Infospace

INSP

23.74%

19

Worldcom

WCOM

23.03%

20

BERKSHIRE CL A

BRKA

22.14%

 

Index Stocks Past three months

 

Diamonds (DOW 30 Stock)

DIA

17.58%

 

SPDR (S&P Index stock)

SPY

11.44%

 

Nasdaq 100 (Index Stock)

QQQ

-8.13%

 

We ran 90 well known stocks through our phantom portfolio using our Premium monthly service trading method for the past three months September 6th - December 5th, 2001. Note, we do not take into account commissions or short selling rules in this phantom portfolio.

 

This three-month window offers a better way to see recent correlations versus annual tracking.

 

This list will be updated periodically and the names of the top five stocks in the list will be provided to only the Monthly subscribers.

 

I have included the index stocks below.

 

As our computer software advances we hope to be able to run more stocks than the current 90.

 

Volatility Index (VIX)

The Volatility Index is a way to track caution and fear in the market place by tracking the options market. We have run the Volatility Index through our algorithm using the same days we trade on and found the following attributes. On positive ion ratio days the VIX moves down meaning people are not as cautious. On Negative Ion Ratio days the VIX moves up, Negative days are good for people but bad for the markets as people tend to be more level headed (they look both ways before crossing the street). Our monthly trading system is based on our exclusive algorithm that forecasts these fluctuating Ion ratios ahead of time.

 

Last year was an extremely good year for our system, whereas 2001 has become a worse case scenario which we have seen many overriding events to our method such as the September 11th terrorist attacks, 10 interest rate cuts (the most in any one year), severe solar storms, recession... 

 

As a result we have seen some drop in our accuracy. However when we reviewed the VIX and compared last year to this year we discovered almost identical accuracy with the forecasted up or down direction. Year 2000 we correctly had 50 correct and 36 wrong while in 2001 we've had 49 correct and 35 wrong.

 

The difference shows up in the percentage loss on the incorrect forecasts

Year 2000 average movement on the 50 correct forecasts = 8.50% and average movement on the 36 incorrect forecasts = -4.36%) while in 2001 we've seen the average movement on the 49 correct forecasts = 8.34% and the average movement on 35 incorrect forecasts =  -7.00%.

 

 

Year 2000

Year 2001

Correct VIX trends forecasted

50

49

Incorrect VIX trends forecasted

36

35

 

 

 

 

Year 2000

Year 2001

Correct VIX trends average percentage per

8.50%

8.34%

Incorrect VIX trends average percentage per

-4.36%

-7.00%

 

In other words we are still batting the same average in 2001 but we're not hitting the homeruns as often as we did in 2000.

 

Theoretically, if we only managed 50% correct direction in our forecast we would still be ahead given the difference in the average percentage of correct days vs. incorrect averages and if we only managed the same percentage averages on correct versus incorrect we would still be ahead due to forecasting more correct trends than incorrect.

 

Our method is still working even through the worst-case scenario of 2001.  

 

The top twenty list is based upon the same forecast used with the VIX.

 

Here you can see a sample page of September 2000 Premium Service. The Premium Monthly service is available for a monthly fee of $85.00 USD. With new alerts for overriding events. Order Page.

 

This information is provided for use with phantom portfolios only.

This material is Copyright 2001, United Dynamics Corp., All Rights Reserved.

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